Apophis, an asteroid with an estimated diameter of about 340 meters, is on a collision course with the earth, despite previous forecasts that it will pass by Earth safely in 2029, coming within approximately 31,000 kilometers. A relatively large object, the asteroid has enough mass to cause significant damage if it hits Earth.
Canadian space expert Paul Wiegert has calculated the odds of a small asteroid significantly altering the path of Apophis, resulting in Apophis being on a collision course with the earth, on Friday, April 13. He explains that the chance of it occurring is minimal, but theoretically possible if a small object (around 3.4 meters in diameter) collides with Apophis.
The speed required for this deflection would have to exceed 500 meters per second (m/s) to have a noticeable impact on its trajectory, as per Wiegert's theory. Wiegert's calculation indicates that the probability of this happening is about 1 in 100 million. This means the scenario of an unseen asteroid hitting Apophis with enough force to send it toward a collision with Earth in 2029 is around 5%.
Apophis was often referred to as the "God of Chaos," after the ancient Egyptian deity associated with chaos. It was given this name due to initial concerns about a potential collision with Earth in 2029. But now, that threat of the 'god of chaos' is back.
"An additional element of the story is that Apophis has been largely unmonitored by telescopes since May 2021 and will remain so through 2027," Paul Wiegert explained.
"This arises simply because of the relative geometry of Apophis, Earth, and the Sun, which puts the asteroid in the daytime sky for the time span in question."