A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll indicates that Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight lead over Republican Donald Trump, with 46% of respondents favouring Harris, compared to 43% for Trump. The four-day poll, which concluded on Monday, shows Trump gaining ground, as he had trailed Harris by six points in a previous poll conducted from September 20-23.
Voters expressed a preference for Trump on various economic issues, and some seem influenced by his claims regarding the criminal behaviour of undocumented immigrants.
The poll has a margin of error of about 3 percentage points. Respondents identified the economy as the most pressing issue facing the country. Notably, 44% believed Trump had a better approach to tackling the "cost of living," while 38% chose Harris.
When asked which economic issue should be prioritised by the next president, 70% indicated the cost of living, while only small percentages selected issues like job growth or taxes. Trump outperformed Harris in all these categories, though voters did prefer Harris over Trump by a margin of 42% to 35% when it came to addressing income inequality.
Trump's campaign has capitalised on growing public concern about immigration, which is at its highest level in over a century. The poll revealed that 53% of voters agreed with the statement that "immigrants who are in the country illegally are a danger to public safety," while 41% disagreed. This marks a shift from a May poll, where opinion was more divided (45% agreed, 46% disagreed).
At his rallies throughout the year, Trump has highlighted crimes attributed to undocumented immigrants. However, research generally indicates that immigrants are not more likely to commit crimes than those born in the US.
Since Harris entered the race in late July, she has consistently led Trump in six consecutive Reuters/Ipsos polls. In the latest survey, she leads Trump by two points—47% to 45%—among likely voters for the upcoming election. Approximately two-thirds of eligible voters participated in the 2020 presidential election, according to the Pew Research Center.
Voters also expressed greater confidence in Harris's mental sharpness compared to Trump, with 55% agreeing that she is "mentally sharp and able to deal with challenges," compared to 46% for Trump.
While national surveys like this one provide valuable insights into voter sentiments, the outcome of the election will ultimately be decided by state-by-state results in the Electoral College. Polls suggest that both candidates are nearly tied in key battleground states, with many results falling within the margin of error.
Harris entered the race following Democratic President Joe Biden's decision to suspend his reelection campaign after a disappointing debate performance against Trump in June. At that time, Trump was viewed as a front-runner, partly due to perceptions of his economic strength amid rising inflation under the Biden administration.
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll surveyed 1,272 US adults online, including 1,076 registered voters, with 969 considered most likely to vote on Election Day.