The India vs Bangladesh second Test at the Green Park stadium in Kanpur faces a significant rain threat. As per the weather forecast, the first three days of the Test match could be hampered by rain and thunderstorms. Even though the forecast for the final two days is significantly brighter, the teams might struggle to get the result if rain takes out time on the first three days. India are heavy favourites to win the Test match so a draw would be a setback to them, especially if weather plays a part in the outcome.
The series is very important for India in terms of the World Test Championship (WTC). India have nine Tests left in the WTC cycle and out of those nine, five are in Australia, which could go either way. India have a Test against Bangladesh and three matches against New Zealand at home and all stand of utmost importance in terms of their WTC final hopes.
India and Australia are favourites to play the WTC final, however, a few other teams could also make it to the summit clash. Among all, South Africa have the best odds. The Proteas are languishing at the seventh position in the WTC table but they have played lesser games. They have two Tests against Bangladesh away from home and two Tests each against Sri Lanka and Pakistan at home. South Africa are favourites to win all the matches and if they do so, they will reach a points percentage (PCT) of 69.44.
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Sri Lanka too can reach PCT of 75 if they win all remaining games, including a Test against New Zealand at home, two Tests against South Africa in South Africa and two tests at home against Australia. Beating South Africa and Australia though will be tough so at the moment we are only considering South Africa a threat to India and Australia.
There could be some factors like slow over-rate which could change the standings but those factors cannot be predicted so as of now we are only seeing India, Australia, and South Africa in a three-way battle for the WTC final berth.
Now coming to India, the series against Australia will be vital for their qualification. Given how competitive the teams are, the scoreline should not be a one-sided one. If India can win two matches, they will almost be on par with South Africa (assuming they win all games) in PCT and will have a chance to qualify. If they win three games, they will mostly go through the final. For this equation to come off, India need to win all home games. Even a draw would bring their PCT down to 65 and they will find it tough to qualify. If they win all home games and two in Australia, they will reach a PCT of 69.29. If they win three, they should go through.
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It can be clearly seen that India's equation could be neck and neck with South Africa so a draw at home would be disastrous for them as it will peg them back in the race. Thus, India would be hoping that rain stays away in Kanpur and they get the crucial WTC points.
It must be noted there are several other scenarios that could come into the equation as it is too early to predict the standings. The above equation is just one of the many that could take place.