Bangladesh will host South Africa in the first Test of a two-match Test series from Monday (October 21) at the Shere Bangla National Stadium in Dhaka from Monday in a series that is extremely important in the race to reach the World Test Championship (WTC) final especially after India's shock defeat to New Zealand in the Bengaluru Test.
While South Africa are currently sixth in the table with 38.89% points, they still have six matches left which on paper are among the easiest fixture any team has. After the two-match away series against Bangladesh, the Temba Bavuma-led side will host Sri Lanka and Pakistan for two matches each.
The Proteas are expected to win all six games which will mean they finish with 69.44%. If that happens, they are guranteed a place in the final as the current top two of India (68.08) and Australia (62.50) will miss with them set to play five Test matches against each other from next month.
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While India's position seems comfortable on the table, the fixture list makes it hard for them as they have to face defending champions Australia in five Tests away from home. Despite their impressive recent record Down Under, it is no secret that winning on Australian soil is probably the hardest task in cricket.
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With each match taking extreme importance in the WTC, India needs to win at least five more matches to ensure they win at least five matches and draw one game to ensure they finish above South Africa if they do not drop any points. However, five wins will be enough to seal a spot for them over Australia even if the Pat Cummins-led side win both Tests against Sri Lanka in March.
While the situation remains in India's control and it is extremely likely they win the next two Tests against New Zealand, this scenario needs them to win at least three Test matches in Australia, which is something they have never done in history.
Hence, India will hope for a favor from one of South Africa's opponents. If the Proteas lose even one of their remaining matches, it will ensure that four wins and three defeats are enough for India to qualify. If South Africa loses two matches, India will qualify with just two wins, meaning a 5-0 defeat could also be enough if India wins both matches against New Zealand, unless Sri Lanka wins at least two or their remaining four matches.
While history and convention logic will suggest that South Africa dropping points to either Sri Lanka or Pakistan at home is unlikely, there is reason to believe they could struggle in Bangladesh, especially with their strong spin attack on sluggish pitches in the Asian country.
Additionally, with Sri Lanka also in contention, India will hope South Africa drop points to Bangladesh and beat Sri Lanka.
It is worth noting that all above assumptions are made on no team getting a overate penalty which is an outcame that cannot be predicted.