Rain threat looms large on the first Test between India and New Zealand at the M Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bengaluru. The city is witnessing heavy rain and the start of play has been delayed due to rain. The forecast is not great for the remainder of the match, with rain predicted on all five days. India desperately need a 3-0 win over New Zealand to boost their hopes of a World Test Championship (WTC ) final berth and a draw would be a big setback.
India sit at the top of the WTC table with a PCT of 74.24 and are firm contender to finish as one of the top two teams in the table. However, India's place is not confirmed and could be challenged by Australia, South Africa and Sri Lanka. India need at least four wins and two draws to finish at a PCT of 67.54, which should be enough for them to reach the WTC final. India would desperately want to win three out of the required four wins against New Zealand as winning two Tests against Australia could be tough. If India fail to win four Tests and secure two draws, they could be in danger of missing out on a place in WTC final, with South Africa, Sri Lanka, and Australia in contention as well.
Sri Lanka have four Tests remaining, two against South Africa in South Africa and two against Australia at home. If they win all, they will qualify irrespective of results from other teams. If they win three and lose one, they will end up at 61.54, which will still leave them with a chance of qualifying, but they will need some other results to go their way.
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For South Africa, they have a two-match Test series against Bangladesh away and host Pakistan and Sri Lanka at home for as many matches. If South Africa win all games, they will reach a PCT of 69.44 which should be enough as only one of India or Australia could go past the figure.
Australia are also one of the hot contenders to reach the WTC final. If they win all remaining seven Tests, they will qualify. If they win five, they will finish at a PCT of 65.79 but then India and Sri Lanka can go past them. However, Australia are a brute force at home and would hope to dominate India in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy. All of the above equations prove that every game and every point is very important for teams in terms of the WTC final thus India would not want to lose out on easy points against New Zealand due to rain. If the match ends in a draw due to rain, India would have to win two remaining Tests against New Zealand and two tests against Australia. They also need to ensure one draw which means they can't afford to lose a series in Australia and the worst they could settle for will be a 2-2 draw.