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Mumbai: After high-octane campaigns and elections in Maharashtra, all eyes are now on the exit polls to know what they predict for the state ahead of the final result which will be announced on November 23. A host of poll agencies and television news channels attempted to predict the election results with exit poll results after voting ended.
Voting for the single-phase Maharashtra elections across 288 assembly constituencies began at 7 am and conclude at 6 pm. The contest is between the ruling Mahayuti alliance – BJP, Shiv Sena and the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction).
The BJP contested 149 seats, Shiv Sena 81 seats, and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP fielded candidates in 59 constituencies. In the Opposition alliance, the Congress has fielded 101 candidates, Shiv Sena (UBT) 95, and the NCP (SP) 86. The ruling BJP-led Mahayuti alliance includes the BJP, Shiv Sena, and the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction), while the opposition MVA comprises the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction).
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Exit Poll Prediction For Maharashtra
Two exit polls — Matrize and People's Pulse — have predicted a return of the ruling alliance in Maharashtra.
People's Pulse has predicted that of the 288 seats in Maharashtra, the Mahayuti — ruling alliance of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, Ajit Pawar's Nationalist Congress Party and the BJP — 175-195 of the 288 assembly seats. The majority mark stands at 145.
The Chanakya exit poll has projected a strong performance for the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra, forecasting a range of 150 to 160 seats for the coalition in the 288-member Assembly.
The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is expected to secure between 130 and 138 seats, indicating a close contest between the two alliances. Smaller parties and independents are predicted to win 6 to 8 seats, potentially influencing the final outcome.
The NDA, they have predicted, will also bag Jharkhand, with the INDIA alliance trailing far back in both states.
JVC's #ExitPoll on #TIMESNOW Maharashtra – Region: North MaharashtraBJP+ 20-23Cong+ 11-14Oth – 1#Nov23WithTimesNow#MaharashtraElections2024pic.twitter.com/it1An9mRxO
— TIMES NOW (@TimesNow) November 20, 2024
Two More Exit Polls Predict BJP Win In Maharashtra
Exit Polls by Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India have predicted a BJP surge in Maharashtra. According to Today’s Chanakya, the BJP will secure 175-186 seats, while the Congress-led alliance is expected to win 100-111 seats. Axis My India exit polls show a strong lead for the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra. In Mumbai, Mahayuti is projected to win 22 of 36 seats, while MVA is expected to secure 14 seats. The VBA is forecast to win no seats. In Konkan and Thane, Mahayuti is predicted to win 24 of 39 seats, leaving MVA with 13 seats. The VBA and others are expected to get 2% and 15% of the vote share, respectively, with others winning 2 seats. In Marathwada, Mahayuti is set to win 30 of 46 seats, while MVA is projected to win 15 seats.
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News 24-Chanakya:
BJP+: 152-160
Congress+: 130-138
Others: 6-8
Peoples Pulse:
BJP+ 182 seats
Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance : 97 seats
Others: 9 seats
Exit Poll Prediction For Jharkhand
Poll Of Polls:
BJP: 43-50
JMM+: 29-36
Others: 2-5
JVC Exit Poll:
The JVC exit poll for Jharkhand has projected a closely contested battle between the BJP and JMM. In Kolhan, the BJP and JMM are expected to secure 6-9 seats each, while North Chota Nagpur is predicted to give the BJP 15-16 seats. In South Chota Nagpur, the BJP is projected to win 8-10 seats, with the JMM+ alliance anticipated to take 5-7 seats. In Palamu, the BJP is expected to win 6-9 seats, while the JMM is projected to secure 1-3 seats. In the tribal-dominated region of Santhal Pargana, the BJP is predicted to win 3-4 seats, while the JMM is projected to secure 13-14 seats. Overall, the exit poll predicts a 7-8 seat difference between the BJP and JMM in the state.
BJP+ 40-44 Seats
JMM+ 30-40 Seats
Matrize Exit Polls:
The Matrize survey for the Jharkhand polls indicates a clear majority for the NDA.
BJP: 44-53
JMM+: 25-30
People's Pulse Survey:
According to People's Pulse survey, the NDA is projected to win a majority, winning between 42-48 seats, while the JMM and Congress are expected to secure 16-23 and 8-14 seats, respectively.
BJP: 42-48 seats
JMM: 16-23
Congress (JMM's ally): 8-14 seats.
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Exit Polls Vs Results: How Accurate Were Predictions For Maharashtra, Jharkhand Elections In 2019?
How Accurate Were Maharashtra Exit Poll Predictions In 2019?
In the Maharashtra assembly election 2019, India Today-Axis had predicted 166-194 seats for the NDA (Shiv Sena and BJP) and 72-90 seats for the UPA (Congress-NCP).
News18-IPSOS predicted 243 seats for the NDA and 41 for the UPA. Republic-Jan Ki Baat predicted 216-230 seats for the NDA and 52-59 seats for the NDA. Times Now predicted 230 seats for the NDA and 48 for the UPA.
ABP News-C Voter predicted 204 seats for the NDA and 69 for the UPA.
When results were announced, the BJP won 105 seats, the undivided Shiv Sena won 56 seats and the undivided NCP won 54 seats. The Congress won 44 seats.
Read More: Sena Vs Sena: Which Symbol Will Get Maharashtra’s Stamp?
Jharkhand Exit Poll Prediction
Jharkhand voted in the second and final phase of the assembly elections. The first phase was held on November 13. The primary contest in the seat is between the ruling JMM-led INDIA bloc and the BJP-headed National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
The Jharkhand election 2019 took place between November 30 and December 20, 2019. The United Progressive Alliance (UPA), comprising Congress and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, won the election. Hemant Soren-led JMM won 30 seats, BJP won 25 and the Congress won 16 seats.
The India Today-Axis My India gave an edge to the JMM-Congress-led UPA. It said the UPA would win 43 seats, whereas the BJP would win 27.
ABP-Voter predicted a hung assembly. It said the UPA would win 35 seats whereas the BJP would win 32 seats. Times Now predicted 44 seats for the UPA and 28 for the BJP.