Seven swing states and 77 electoral votes – that's what experts say is going to likely determine the outcome of the US presidential election. With just weeks left for the polling day, all eyes are on the polling averages, seeking clues about who has an edge in a race that is as close as it has ever been.
Anyone following the US election would have noticed a clear shift in the 'vibe' about who could win, for the first time since Kamala Harris replaced Biden on the Democratic Party ticket and surged ahead of Trump in the polls in most swing states. Since then, the former president has made a comeback on the polling averages, but that has not translated into a clear advantage over Harris with the polling numbers being tied in most swing states – except in Georgia and Arizona, where Trump has a lead.
Who Is Leading, Donald Trump or Kamala Harris?
There are likely seven swing states in the November elections – Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin. Swing states are those states that can go either for the Democrats or the Republicans, as opposed to the states that are decidedly either Republican or Democrat.
Combined, the seven swing states have 77 electoral votes. To win the presidency, Kamala Harris would require 44 votes, while Donald Trump would require 51.
As per the latest update on the New York Times polling averages – Trump is ahead in Arizona by 2 points and in Georgia by 1 point. The rest of the five states are all tied, with the race being too close to call there. The result is slightly in favour of Harris in the Washington Post's polling averages. There, Harris is leading in Pennsylvania (2 points), Michigan (2 points) and Wisconsin (2 points).
Meanwhile, Pollstar Nate Silver has presented a similar analysis as the NYT average, suggesting a slight Trump lead in Arizona and Georgia. And the polling aggregator ReaClearPolitics shows a definitive Trump lead in all the swing states – often going up to two points in some.
However, whatever slight edge is being projected in the polling averages falls within the margin of error of the polls – indicating that the margins are very, very fine!
Other Clues That Can Be Looked At
Clues from other sources often provide important hints into who can win the US elections. Among the key clues would be the betting market – such as Poly Market, which provides a percentage likelihood of candidates winning based on the odds. Though Trump is strongly leading as per the latest Poly Market numbers, it is reportedly due to some fans betting heavily in favor of the 78-year-old.
Then, of course, there are the early voting numbers. Ahead of election day, early voting has begun in some states, such as Georgia, and the polling turnout numbers are often used to provide analysis of who it favors. As per a survey released by USA Today and Suffolk University, Kamala Harris was up 63 percent to 34 percent among those who have already voted. However, early election turnout numbers never paint a definitive picture, as things can change completely on election day.