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Each year, bookies release their predictions for who will claim the most prestigious prize in literature and each year, they’re completely off the mark.
Tomorrow, the 2024 Nobel Prize in Literature will be revealed as part of the Nobel committee’s annual announcements. Once again, Chinese author Can Xue leads the odds as the frontrunner for the award.
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At 71, Can was also the top pick for last year’s prize, but she lost out to Norwegian writer Jon Fosse.
Fosse’s win was seen as a surprise, given that his body of work—spanning plays, novels, poetry, and essays rarely reached beyond his large Norwegian readership. However, the Nobel committee praised his extensive bibliography, particularly his 'Septology'. This seven-part, 1,250-page epic, first released between 2019 and 2021 and published in English by Fitzcarraldo Press, was hailed as his “magnum opus.”
The Nobel Prize in Literature has been awarded since 1901 and is traditionally the last of the Nobel prizes to be announced. To date, it has been awarded 116 times to 120 individuals—103 men and only 17 women. This year’s winner, revealed at the Swedish Academy, will also receive 11 million SEK (approximately €9.7 million).
A glance at the bookies' odds a day before the announcement shows that the frontrunners are almost identical to last year's. Notably, Jon Fosse, last year’s unexpected winner, barely appeared in the running beforehand, so take these odds with a grain of salt.
Haruki Murakami, despite being a perennial favourite in the top three for years, seems unlikely to claim the prize anytime soon.
When reviewing past winners, the Swedish Academy tends to either choose a relatively obscure figure like Jon Fosse or surprise with a popular yet unexpected choice.
In 2017, few anticipated the win for widely acclaimed English-Japanese author Kazuo Ishiguro. The year before, Bob Dylan’s selection was an even greater shock.
That said, here are the leading contenders for the 2024 prize:
1. Can Xue
Can Xue’s odds for the 2024 Nobel Prize in Literature range from 10/1 to 4/1, but regardless of the variation, the Chinese author is widely regarded as the most likely candidate for the prize this year.
Born Deng Xiaohua in 1953, Can Xue's upbringing was shaped by her parents’ persecution as rightists by the Communist Party, a defining experience that influenced her avant-garde literary style, which departs from traditional Chinese norms.
Renowned for her short story collections, Can Xue’s work is often considered challenging to translate, with many arguing that her unique style is difficult to capture in English. However, her 2019 novel 'Barefoot Doctor' has solidified her position as a strong contender for the Nobel.
In addition to her fiction, Can is also celebrated for her literary criticism, offering deep insights into authors from the Western canon such as Dante, Jorge Luis Borges, and Franz Kafka. She has twice been longlisted for the International Booker Prize for her novel 'Love in the New Millennium' and the short story collection 'I Live in the Slums'.
Though she’s the frontrunner, Can was in this same spot last year, when the prize ultimately went to Jon Fosse, an unexpected choice. Strong odds don’t guarantee this will be her year either.
2. Gerald Murnane
Gerald Murnane has once again appeared in the bookies’ predictions, frequently hailed as the “greatest living English-language writer.” At 85, Murnane remains a perennial favourite for the Nobel Prize, and with no Australian winner in over 50 years, many believe his time may have come.
Though not widely known, those familiar with Murnane’s work regard him as one of the finest writers of our time. His 1982 novel 'The Plains' and 1988's 'Inland' are prime examples of his unique, self-referential style, which often reflects on the nature of his own artistry.
3. Haruki Murakami
Once again, there’s talk that this might finally be Haruki Murakami’s year for the Nobel Prize.
Murakami gained international fame with his 1987 novel 'Norwegian Wood', and has since become renowned for his signature blend of magical realism, seen in works like 'Kafka on the Shore' and 'The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle'.
Despite being consistently tipped for the Nobel and having already won nearly every other literary award, Murakami remains an elusive choice for the prize. His works have also made a significant impact through film adaptations, including 'Burning' and the Oscar-winning 'Drive My Car'. His latest novel, 'The City and Its Uncertain Walls' (released in English in 2023), may have garnered attention, but it likely won’t change the outcome this time either.